Preview Selections

Doncaster 1.05 Half The Freedom 13/8-7/4 Win Bet

Doncaster 2.50 Silver Flyer 15/8 Win Bet

Huntingdon 3.35 £5.50 Win Bet Guillemot 9/1 £4.50 Win Bet The Wise Traveller 5/4

Thurles 3.50 £6.00 Win Bet Potters Party 4/1 £4.00 Win Bet Yeah Man 6/4

Ffos Las 4.18 Royale Dance 11/8 Win Bet

Thurles 4.25 £4.00 Each Way Da Big Fella 10/1-12/1 £2.00 Win Bet Maggie Walsh 9/2

Previews 1 and 2

Damaged by late non runners Left me with 2 short priced bets Trained by Jonjo and D. MCain

Neither trainer one to rely on We could reduce stake and risk And combine them like this

Doncaster 1.05 - Half The Freedom 13/8-7/4 Doncaster 2.50 - Silver Flyer 15/8 (2 Places) Each Way Double

Don't feel that is strong enough If I was having that kind of bet I would prefer these two horses

Doncaster 1.05 - Half The Freedom 13/8-7/4 Ffos Las 4.18 - Royale Dance 11/8 Each Way Double

This is a little short as well And relies on a Jonjo horse But I would endorse this bet If anyone wanted to risk it

Not going to use for the best bet

ROYALE DANCE Initially my second option Now looks my best bet today

Yesterday's Summary Non committal just 4 previews Not surprised the first one lost Although a saver lost in a photo Never thought I read that right The other 3 races went P W W Bitasweetsymphony placed 3rd He ran a perfectly sound race The last two previews both won Both win bets in larger fields Obviously pleased with results Much as it was non committal

PROFILES & PREVIEWS Doncaster 1.05 9/4 Glory Bridge, Half The Freedom, 9/2 Bashful

7/1 Ivetwiggedit, 12/1 Golden Town, Professor Calculus

14/1 Melvich Bay, 25/1 Monymusk Lad, 33/1 Ace Time.

Handicap Hurdle 2m Conditional Riders

There are 8 past renewals Not yet had any 5yo winner

BASHFUL tried to be first But he is a 5yo with topweight He is now a non runner

GLORY BRIDGE looks raw 4 career starts 3 hurdle starts

Fewer than all past winners This track generic applies to him Go back to 2008 January to October Doncaster Handicap Hurdles Any distance Any class During these 10 months Under 6 lifetime runs Under 4 hurdle races Running within 38 days Have a 0-57 record in them GLORY BRIDGE fails this

Going to look elsewhere It was only 13 days ago He was beaten 21 lengths Most past winners of this Conformed to this profile Horses aged 6-7-8-9 At least 6 career starts At least 4 hurdle starts Running within 7 weeks Beaten <17 lengths last time

Basic enough profile But only one horse in this Looked suitable to select

Selection HALF THE FREEDOM 13/8 Win Bet

Doncaster 2.50 3/1 Blue Stello, 4/1 Imperial Storm, 9/2 Revels Hill5/1 Silver Flyer, 13/2 Docpickedme, 10/1 Johnson's Blue10/1 Romeo Brown, 12/1 Pileon.

Handicap Hurdle 3

BLUE STELLO 11/4 Looks a bit raw to me 2 career starts Not raced now in 40 days Raced once in 461 days On a big wide track like this It could easily find him out His profile is not an exact match To Glory Bridge in the 1.05pm race A horse who fails a course statistic But it is worryingly close to this And with one or two extra filters It can be considered problematic

Go back to 2008 January to October Doncaster

Handicap Hurdles Any distance Any class During these 10 months Under 6 lifetime runs Under 4 hurdle races Running within 44 days Carrying 10st 6lbs or more Have a 0-62 record in them BLUE STELLO fails this Feel the best strategy Would be to oppose him With an each way alternative

Some of these hard to read REVELS HIM clearly is one Coming from a 3m 5f chase DOCKPICKEDME a 7yo Won last time but 72 days ago

An older winner won last year It was an unsatisfactory race

The previous 15 renewals show You want a horse aged 5-6-7 With under 14 hurdle races The following horse Just look a bit too exposed

PILEON ROMEO BROWN

IMPERIAL STORM Was my selection He is now a non runner Leaves me with a replacement SILVER FLYER

Selection SILVER FLYER 15/8 Win Bet

Huntingdon 3.35 5/4 The Wise Traveller, 4/1 Bird On The Wire 4/1 San Pedro De Senam, 9/1 Guillemot, 12/1 Robeam 14/1 Ratoute Yutty, Tel'Art, 25/1 Teddy The Knight.

Handicap Hurdle 3m 1f This has always been a race

Won by unexposed hurdlers Horses with over 20 career runs Have a 0-49 record in this race

Horses with over 16 hurdle runs Have a 0-34 record in this race

The table below illustrates How many exposed horses there are Number of hurdle runs

26 San Pedro De Senam 23 Tel'Art 23 Ratoute Yutty 21 Robeam 12 Guillemot 19 Bird On The Wire 9 The Wise Traveller 6 Teddy The Knight

Best Profile

Handicap Hurdle 3m 1f Under 21 runs Under 17 hurdle runs Aged 6-7-8-9-10 Running within 75 days 10st 6lbs or more Class 4 or less last time

Coming from 2m 3f or more Coming from a hurdle race

Prefer the unexposed horses Felt only 2 were shortlistable

THE WISE TRAVELLER one Clearly the most likely winner But he is short so he is a saver

Selection £5.50 Win Bet GUILLMOT 9/1 £4.50 Win Bet THE WISE TRAVELLER 5/4

Thurles 3.50 5/2 Yeah Man, 3/1 Potters Party, 11/2 Ebenezer Scrooge 7/1 Japers Jack, 8/1 Dinoland, 8/1 Fantasio D'alene 12/1 Calazure, 16/1 Rowdy Romeo, 20/1 Monza Man 25/1 Silver Gazette, 100/1 Jet Setting Johnny, 100/1 Karuma Grey 100/1 Smiths Sister, 150/1 Design Flaw, 200/1 Depeche Mo.

Maiden Hurdle 2m 7f Against the 5 year olds Similar races show They have a weak 4-89 record

February Maiden Horses

Run over 2m 7f and more Horses aged 5 Running within 60 days Under 20 lifetime starts Beaten over 6 lengths last time Have a 0-52 record in these races

The following horses fail this DINOLAND CALAZURE JAPERS JACK

Horses with their profile Have won in January and March But in fields of 11 or more They have a 0-99 record Just prefer an older horse

YEAH MAN is a 6yo

Initially I had problems with him Coming up from a 2m hurdle But the 2021 winner of this race Had the same profile as he does So upgraded him to a positive Decided he had to be a saver

EBENEEZER SCROOGE a 6yo May have had just 1 career start But I can match him to 1 winner

POTTERS PARTY is an option If we forgive him his last race Doesn't need much forgiveness Ran into a runaway winner there Conditions were extremely testing Could easily have been 2nd there He gets the decision between them

Win Bet and saver mean We are getting 2/1 about him With money back on favourite

Selection £6.00 Win Bet POTTERS PARTY 4/1 £4.00 Win Bet YEAH MAN 6/4

Ffos Las 4.18 11/8 Royale Dance, 6/4 Bombay Sapphire 9/2 Ah Whisht, 12/1 Picnic In The Park 25/1 Houston Calling, 100/1 Gilwen Rosie.

Mares Novice Hurdle 2m 4f Could be a match ROYALE DANCE - Dan Skelton BOMBAY SAPPHIRE - Nicky Henderson Their biggest market danger AH WHISHT is an unraced 6yo She may be able to win first time But it would be unlikely she does January to April Mares Novice Hurdles Run over 2m 4f or more Unraced horses Aged under 7 years old

Have a 1-58 record in them

Staying with experience And the stronger stables Both the market leaders Have 3 career starts now

ROYALE DANCE has 2 hurdle runs BOMBAY SAPPHIRE has just 1 run That should be an advantage

BOMBAY SAPPHIRE is a threat But she has to come up 4f in trip Just makes her profile weaker

ROYALE DANCE

She is only rated 108 But she was entered in a handicap At a meeting that got abandoned Connections said beforehand She had 30lbs in hand off that mark Having thrived since a wind op

That 30lbs comment is ridiculous But clear she is considered better And should be enough to win this

Selection ROYALE DANCE 11/8 Win Bet

Thurles 4.25 100/30 Maggie Walsh, 4/1 Presenting Point 13/2 Chelseas Friend, 7/1 Thecornerhouse, 8/1 Cast Iron 8/1 Rideau Canal, 12/1 Da Big Fella, Glenmalure Lodge 14/1 Esthers Marvel, 20/1 Red Finch, 25/1 From This Moment 25/1 Toor Hawk, 33/1 Whiskey Lady, 50/1 Imminent Arrival 50/1 Silverstrand. Handicap Hurdle 2m 7f

10 Past renewals Complicated race Happy to ignore the reserves No winners aged 10 or more

ESTHERS MARVEL is a 10yo Oldest horse well beaten recently

Horses not doing enough last time ESTHERS MARVEL RED FINCH SILVERSTRAND

Horses with 1 run that season Have a 0-27 record in this race Happy to ignore these runners

CHELSEAS FRIEND RIDEAU CANAL Recent runs in this race Have been the best strategy

Horses absent over 27 days Have a poor 1-76 record in this The following had absences That make the look vulnerable

FROM THIS MOMENT TOOR HAWK WHISKEY LADY IMMINENT ARRIVAL GLENMALURE LODGE CAST IRON PRESENTING POINT THECORNERHOUSE

PRESENTING POINT is a 9yo Has topweight and 102 days off

Horses with 11st 7lbs or more Have a modest 1-18 record Only 1 high weighted winner

RIDEAU CANAL fails this angle And has raced just once this year PRESENTING POINT 11st 12lbs On top of his worrying absence

THECORNERHOUSE is a mare She has not raced in 75 days

February Handicap Hurdles Run over 2m 7f or more Mares Absent over 58 days Have a 0-112 record The following all fail this

FROM THIS MOMENT TOOR HAWK WHISKEY LADY THECORNERHOUSE

Shortlist MAGGIE WALSH DA BIG FELLA MAGGIE WALSH could win But she is a mare up in trip Having won a maiden hurdle

DA BIG FELLA is modest But looks very well treated Not been easy to keep sound Which is why most of his runs Have been when short of fitness But he has runs that can win this Worth a chance at a big price

Selection Small Stakes £4.00 Each Way DA BIG FELLA 10/1-12/1 £2.00 Win Bet MAGGIE WALSH 9/2

FUTURE BETTING ANGLES Had my first National Bet Will end up backing a few

AintreeGrand National

LONGHOUSE POET 33/1 (Betfair) £20 Win

10/1 Noble Yeats 16/1 Any Second Now

16/1 Corach Rambler 16/1 Ashtown Lad 20/1 Delta Work

20/1 Gaillard Du Mesnil 20/1 Iwilldoit 20/1 Longhouse Poet

20/1 Le Milos 20/1 Remastered 20/1 Capodanno

25/1 Carefully Selected 25/1 Galvin 25/1 Hewick

25/1 Lifetime Ambition 25/1 Minella Times 25/1 The Big Dog

25/1 The Big Breakaway 25/1 The Shunter 25/1 Conflated

33/1 Darasso 33/1 Envoi Allen 33/1 Escaria Ten

33/1 Fury Road 33/1 Lord Lariat 33/1 Mr Incredible

33/1 Pencilfulloflead 33/1 Ain't That A Shame

40/1 Chemical Energy 40/1 Chris's Dream 40/1 Diol Ker

Have not done any statistics yet

But most are memorised anyway

Graded Handicap Chases

Run over 3m 4f or further

Any time of year

Horses aged 5-6-7-8

Rated 150 or higher

Absent more than 31 days

Have a 0-64 record in them

Those that ran in the National

Had a 0-27 record from the 64

LONGHOUSE POET

Failed this statistic last year

He was an 8yo

He had to race off 155

He only had 6 chase runs Fewer than any winners He still finished in 6th place No surprise beaten 34 lengths

But he is crucially older now

Still a bit inexperienced for it Given he has just 7 chase runs But he should run again before And those lighter raced chasers Are closing in on this race now

He is being laid out for this He's been hurdling this year To protect his handicap mark

His sire Yeats is a positive Yeats bred last years winner

I made find better options later

But he is 33/1 on Betfair to win

I have had £20 to win £660

Cheltenham 2023

March 14th Supreme Novices' Hurdle

Betfair Prices

7/2 Facile Vega, 9/2 Marine Nationale

9/2 Il Etait Temps, 14/1 Rare Edition 16/1 Gaelic Warrior

16/1Tahmuras 16/1 Impaire Et Passe 16/1 High Definition

16/1 Rare Edition 25/1 Chasing Fire

Market had a shake up

Facile Vega ran last Sunday

Beaten 20 lengths at odds on

Before that he was around 10/11 Had the look of a banker in this

The obvious statistical question

Can you win a Surpeme

After being stuffed 20 lengths

The answer is some have done

But none that were just like him

Last 25 Supreme winners

22 horses won last time out

3 horses were beaten before

2005 - Arcalis lost 18 lengths

2010- Menorah lost 15 lengths

2017- Labaik lost 100 lengths

So it can and has been done

But all 3 of the above horses

Had at least 4 hurdle races

FACILE VEGA has had just 3

Those like him having under 4

Have a 0-61 record in the race

That said many were unfancied

I would want him onside myself

There was an excuse for defeat

He was not given a sensible ride

Trainer and the time figure boys

All said he set a suicidal gallop

So we could be getting 7/2

About a horse that was evens

And who has flawed opposition

GAELIC WARRIOR is a 5yo

Winning a handicap last time

Is not a traditional preparation

If you had suggested to Mullins

Before Sunday he could win this

And would beat Facile Vega too

Mullins may have just laughed

He has several other options too He is not a horse I expect to back

The last 29 Supreme winners

Had the following career runs

2 7 4 9 5 15 7 4 5 8 9 8 5 8 9 8 6

21 9 7 7 26 17 13 29 18 10 8 7

28 of the 29 winners

Had at least 4 career starts

The only horse that had less

Was Constitution Hill last year

You can argue he is special

I don't see this as a trend shift

I'd rather still stay clear of horses

Who have not yet had 4 races

IMPAIRE ET PASSE has 3 runs

He looks raw and not safe enough

HIGH DEFINITION has 2 hurdle runs

Won on debut then unseated at 4th

That is too raw a profile to consider

MARINE NATIONAL is a 6yo Second favourite

If he does not run again

He will have 100 days off

Recent absences

Had the following days absence

66 37 32 37 66 16 80 59

30 31 52 33 24 16 115 40

The 2008 winner

Won with 115 days off

But he was older as a 7yo

No other horse managed it

Anywhere near 100 days off

MARINE NATIONAL is unsafe

He's had just 4 races

Including 2 over hurdles

Horses winning aged 6

Had the following career runs 4 5 15 7 8 8 8 8

Most had 5 or more runs

Only 1 (Shishkin) had fewer

He won with 4 runs in 2020

But he had 3 hurdle races

MARINE NATIONAL has had 2

Only 1 winner aged 6

Had under 3 hurdle races

That was Ebaziyan in 2007

He had 8 previous career runs

MARINE NATIONAL has had 4

He may be unbeaten in those

But this is quite a raw profile

RARE EDITION

CHASING FIRE

Share the same profile as Shiskin

But from a much smaller stables

And well behind him on numbers

TAHMURAS from Paul Nicholls

Does have positives in his profile

But not a convincing sire (Falco)

And do we want an English horse

IL ETAIT TEMPS is a 5yo

He won the Grade 1 on Sunday

The race Facile Vega flopped in

He offers plenty of experience

Happy enough with his profile

But Willie Mullins if asked before

Would surely had confidently said

That Facile Vega was his number 1

Current Preference

1) FACILE VEGA

2) IL ETAIT TEMPS

If this race was run today

I would be looking at these options

FACILE VEGA each way 7/2

FACILE VEGA as a win bet

IL ETAIT TEMPS as a saver

Either a win or a place saver

But the race is not run today

And after a hard race last time Best option is to wait and see

How Facile Vega responds to it Can not bet him "without a run" William Hill Bet365 Offer 7/2 Facile Vega Non runner no bet Thats the best current value An each way bet around 7/2

With no risks if he doesn't run